Notes
NFL Week 10 Game by Game: Pass Rates, Key Players and Injury News
Tyler Redshaw
Here is a game-by-game look at all 10 games on the Week 10 DraftKings Sunday main slate: which offenses like to throw, the players worth knowing, and the injury news that matters. Six teams have a quarterback change this week, so read the notes before you build. Each game ends with a watch list that shows live injury status, projections and snap share, so it stays current as inactives come in.
A quick word on pass rate over expectation (PROE). It compares how often a team actually throws with how often an average team would throw in the same game situations. A positive number means the offense passes more than expected, and a negative number means it leans on the run. All PROE numbers below cover the season through Week 9 and only count neutral game scripts, when the game is still competitive. Defensive notes use DraftKings points allowed per game by position, ranked across the whole league. You can compare every team on the team tendencies page.
Chiefs at Falcons
Kansas City is at +4.1 PROE, third highest among this slate's offenses, while Atlanta sits at -7.8. Kenneth Walker III is questionable after Andy Reid called him tight, which makes Emmett Johnson the back to know if Walker is limited. Atlanta's defense has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to running backs in the league. On the other side, Bijan Robinson is the top running back proj on the slate, and Kansas City has allowed the sixth-most points to tight ends, a good draw for Kyle Pitts.
$8,200, 21.4 proj, the top running back on the slate.
Mean 21.4 · p90 32.7 · Snap 74%
groin. Walker (groin) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Jordan Schultz of Fox Sports reports.
$9,200, 19.7 proj. Questionable, so check his status Sunday morning.
Mean 19.7 · p90 30.3 · Snap 74%
$4,700, 10.1 proj, with more work if Walker is limited.
Mean 10.1 · p90 18.6 · Snap 27%
$3,800, 9.3 proj against a defense that has been soft against tight ends.
Mean 9.3 · p90 16.8 · Snap 59%
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Texans at Browns
Todd Monken said it was always his intention to start Deshaun Watson, who returns from a concussion after Shedeur Sanders started last week. Houston ruled out Marvin Harrison Jr. (hamstring), and David Montgomery is questionable, which keeps Woody Marks in the lead role. Houston's defense has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to wide receivers in the league, a good spot for KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, who is questionable. C.J. Stroud is at 17.9 proj with Nico Collins at 13.5.
$4,800, against a defense that has been soft against receivers.
Mean 10.0 · p90 19.3 · Snap 74%
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Vikings at Packers
Kirk Cousins will start for Minnesota after Kyler Murray was ruled out. The Vikings are also without T.J. Hockenson and Jauan Jennings, and Jordan Addison (thumb) is questionable, so Justin Jefferson ($6,800) should see a heavy share of the targets. Green Bay's defense has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to wide receivers. Josh Jacobs is out for the Packers, leaving Kaleb Johnson, Pierre Strong and MarShawn Lloyd to split the backfield. Minnesota's defense has allowed the fewest points in the league to quarterbacks and tight ends.
$6,500, 18.0 proj against the defense that allows the fewest points to quarterbacks.
Mean 18.0 · p90 28.2 · Snap 98%
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Dolphins at Colts
Miami's -9.3 PROE is the lowest among this slate's offenses, and Kyle McCord ($4,000) starts with Malik Willis on IR. Chris Bell is doubtful, so Caleb Douglas and Malik Washington are the receivers to know. For Indianapolis, Josh Downs and Keenan Allen were traded away, which leaves Tyler Warren as the clear top target. Miami's defense has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to tight ends in the league. Jonathan Taylor has no injury designation.
$4,400, 11.9 proj against a defense that has been soft against tight ends.
Mean 11.9 · p90 20.1 · Snap 87%
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Panthers at Saints
Carolina is at +4.8 PROE, the most pass-heavy offense on this slate. New Orleans has allowed the most DraftKings points per game to running backs in the league, and Carolina has allowed the second-most, so both backfields are in good spots. Chuba Hubbard leads the Panthers, while the Saints have Travis Etienne Jr. questionable in his first week back from IR, which could cut into Audric Estime and Alvin Kamara. Tyler Shough ($5,600) is third among quarterbacks at 21.0 proj, and Chris Olave is at 16.3.
$7,200, 17.7 proj against the defense that allows the most points to backs.
Mean 17.7 · p90 28.0 · Snap 80%
$5,800, 18.6 proj in the slate's most pass-heavy offense.
Mean 18.6 · p90 28.7 · Snap 95%
$4,500, 9.9 proj. Etienne's status changes his outlook.
Mean 9.9 · p90 17.4 · Snap 47%
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Bills at Jets
Josh Allen ($7,500) is the top quarterback proj on the slate at 22.9, and James Cook is at 17.3. Buffalo leans on the run at -6.4 PROE. The Jets list Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper Jr. and Adonai Mitchell as questionable, so check all three before you build. Breece Hall out-touched Braelon Allen 18 to 10 in his return last week, according to FantasyLabs. Dalton Kincaid is not on the Bills' injury report.
concussion. Wilson (concussion) is expected to be cleared to play against the Bills on Sunday, Matt Zenitz of CBS Sports reports.
$6,500, 9.4 proj. Questionable, so check his status Sunday morning.
Mean 9.4 · p90 18.0 · Snap 89%
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Jaguars at Titans
Tennessee's defense has allowed the most DraftKings points per game to wide receivers in the league and the sixth-most to quarterbacks. That sets up Trevor Lawrence (18.9 proj), Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers, who was limited with an ankle injury but carries no game designation. The Titans ruled out Carnell Tate, Tyjae Spears is questionable, and Tony Pollard practiced fully Friday. Jacksonville's defense has allowed the second-fewest points to running backs.
$6,600, 18.9 proj against a defense that has been soft against quarterbacks.
Mean 18.9 · p90 29.5 · Snap 96%
$6,200, 13.0 proj against the defense that allows the most points to receivers.
Mean 13.0 · p90 25.0 · Snap 74%
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Rams at Cardinals
The Rams are at +4.5 PROE, second highest among this slate's offenses, but they are short on pass catchers. Puka Nacua is on IR, Davante Adams is out, and tight end Terrance Ferguson was ruled out, which leaves Konata Mumpfield, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson. Arizona's defense has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks in the league. Carson Beck makes his first start for the Cardinals, with Trey McBride at 14.3 proj.
$6,200, 14.7 proj against a defense that has been soft against quarterbacks.
Mean 14.7 · p90 23.7 · Snap 98%
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Seahawks at Raiders
Sam Darnold is out, so Drew Lock ($5,000, 14.3 proj) starts again for Seattle. The Raiders defense has allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks in the league and the fifth-most to tight ends. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is at 19.3 proj. For the Raiders, No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza makes his first NFL start after the Kirk Cousins trade, against a Seattle defense that has allowed the fewest points in the league to wide receivers. Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty remain the Raiders players to know.
$5,000, 14.3 proj against a defense that has been soft against quarterbacks.
Mean 14.3 · p90 23.3 · Snap 97%
$7,600, with a rookie quarterback making his first start.
Mean 13.6 · p90 24.0 · Snap 86%
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49ers at Cowboys
Mike Evans is out for San Francisco, Deebo Samuel is back after a full Friday practice, and Kyle Shanahan said Keenan Allen will have a role in his first game with the team. Brock Purdy is at 22.0 proj and Christian McCaffrey at 20.1, and George Kittle is the top tight end proj on the slate. Dallas has allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks and the sixth-most to running backs in the league. For the Cowboys, CeeDee Lamb is the top wide receiver proj on the slate, and George Pickens carries no injury designation.
$8,800, 20.5 proj, the top wide receiver on the slate.
Mean 20.5 · p90 33.6 · Snap 80%
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Lower-Owned Players With Good Spots
Outside ownership projections we checked have Tyler Warren, Chris Olave, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Chuba Hubbard and Tyler Shough among the most popular plays on the slate. The players below project well behind that group in the outside numbers and still have a good matchup, role or volume.
Bryce Young and Jalen Coker offer a different way into Panthers-Saints. Carolina is the most pass-heavy offense on the slate, and Young has the same matchup as Shough in the same game. Pairing them with Olave gives you the most popular receiver without the most popular quarterback.
Breece Hall and DJ Moore are a mini-stack in Bills-Jets. Hall took most of the backfield work in his return, and Buffalo has allowed plenty of catches to backs this season, according to FantasyLabs. Moore gets the top quarterback proj on the slate throwing to him.
Tyler Higbee is the Rams tight end to know with Nacua, Adams and Ferguson out. Parkinson is the cheaper and more popular option, but Higbee has run more routes all season, and Arizona has allowed the third-most points to quarterbacks in the league.
$5,800, 18.6 proj in the slate's most pass-heavy offense.
Mean 18.6 · p90 28.7 · Snap 95%
Wrap-up
Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, so check back Sunday morning. The watch lists above update live, and the full board is on the Week 10 projections page.
Status, mean, and snap share on this note follow the board.
Open projections