Panthers at Packers TNF Showdown: Sims, Projections and Builds

Thursday Night Football has the Panthers at the Packers at Lambeau Field, 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video. Below is how our projections and simulations see the DraftKings Showdown, from game environment to builds. Proj is our mean DK projection.

Game overview

These two offenses play at almost the same speed: Carolina's pace number is 54.8 and Green Bay's is 54.4. Carolina has run 65 plays a game to Green Bay's 60, and the Panthers run the ball a bit more often (44.0% rush rate vs 41.9%).

The bigger split is intent. In neutral game states through Week 7, Carolina throws 6.3 points above expectation, one of the clearer pass leans you will see. Green Bay sits at +1.5. Defensively, teams have thrown less than expected against Green Bay (-3.5) and against Carolina (-2.1), so both defenses tend to get tested on the ground.

• Green Bay run game vs Carolina: Carolina's run defense allows yards per carry about 7% above average (factor 1.07).
• Green Bay passing vs Carolina: a slightly tougher than average pass defense (factor 0.96).
• Carolina passing vs Green Bay: also slightly tougher than average (0.97). Carolina rushing vs Green Bay: close to average (0.98).
• DK points allowed: Green Bay has given up the 5th-fewest to QBs and 2nd-fewest to TEs, but ranks 27th vs RBs and 23rd vs WRs.
• Carolina has given up the 7th-fewest DK points to WRs, ranks 15th vs QBs and 18th vs TEs, and 31st vs RBs.

Injuries

Both offensive lines are short-handed. Carolina has ruled out guards Damien Lewis (knee) and Torricelli Simpkins III (ankle), and tackle Taylor Moton is on injured reserve. Green Bay has ruled out Sean Rhyan (ankle) and tackle Travis Glover (knee), with center Jacob Monk on injured reserve.

• Carolina OUT: edge Jaelan Phillips (hamstring), G Damien Lewis, G Torricelli Simpkins III, CB Akayleb Evans (triceps/knee). IR: OT Taylor Moton. Questionable: DT Bobby Brown III.
• Green Bay OUT: G Sean Rhyan, OT Travis Glover, LB Zaire Franklin (shin), edge Micah Parsons (knee). IR: C Jacob Monk.
• Green Bay questionable: WR Matthew Golden (shoulder/foot, expected to play), CB Keisean Nixon (shoulder, added Thursday), DT Devonte Wyatt (ankle), DE Brenton Cox Jr., DT Anthony Campbell.
• No Carolina skill-position player carries a game designation. Bryce Young and Jalen Coker are listed with no status.

View this post on X

View this post on X

View this post on X

Golden is the one to watch at kickoff. If he is active, nothing changes in the numbers below. If he sits, Watson, Kraft and Savion Williams pick up the slack and Golden's share of the builds should move to them.

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love (proj 19.2, $10,000) and Bryce Young (proj 18.2, $9,600) are the two highest projections on the slate and price out almost identically per dollar. Our model has Love around 264 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns, and Young around 254 yards and 1.6 touchdowns with a little more on the ground.

Their good games land in the same place: around 24 DK points for Love and around 23 for Young. The matchup tilts slightly to Love. Green Bay has allowed the 5th-fewest DK points to quarterbacks this season, while Carolina sits in the middle of the league.

Young's last six games swing widely, from 35.4 DK points against Chicago in Week 1 to 8.4 against Tampa Bay last week. Love has been steadier, between 13.8 and 28.3 over his last six.

In our sims, Love lands in the best possible lineup in 68% of runs and Young in 63%. Playing one or both is the default, not a reach.

Running backs

Chuba Hubbard (proj 14.5, $9,000) is Carolina's workhorse with about 60% of the team's carries. We project around 16 carries and two catches. His last two games show the range: 28 carries and 22.1 DK points against Philadelphia, then 7 carries and 10.0 points in last week's blowout loss.

Green Bay has allowed the 6th-most DK points to running backs, so the matchup is friendly if Carolina keeps the game close enough to keep running.

Josh Jacobs leads Green Bay's backfield and gets the softest matchup in this game. Carolina has allowed the 2nd-most DK points to running backs and above-average yards per carry. Behind him, MarShawn Lloyd (proj 4.1, $3,800) is a cheap backup piece.

Pass catchers

Tetairoa McMillan (proj 15.8, $9,400) is the top non-QB play. He has about 26% of Carolina's targets, we project around 8 targets, and his Week 4 game against Detroit (14 catches, 192 yards, 2 TDs, 48.2 DK points) shows how high he can go. His good games land around 21.

Christian Watson (proj 15.0, $9,800) is Green Bay's top projected receiver and its deep threat with a 13.4-yard average depth of target. He scored 35.3 against Chicago in Week 5. His good games land around 20.

Matthew Golden (proj 12.8, $8,400) has seen 12 and 13 targets in two of his last three games. Tucker Kraft (proj 10.7, $7,400) is on the field for 82% of snaps and faces a Carolina defense that is average against tight ends.

Carolina's tight ends have a harder road. Darren Waller (proj 4.7) and Tommy Tremble (proj 4.1) face a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 2nd-fewest DK points to the position.

Value plays

• Jalen Coker, WR, $7,800, proj 13.2: the best points per dollar of any pass catcher. He shows up in the sims' best lineup about as often as Watson (42% each) for $2,000 less.
• Tommy Tremble, TE, $2,600, proj 4.1: a cheap way to fit two expensive players, with a tough matchup.
• Savion Williams, WR, $4,400, proj 5.3: plays over half the snaps and gains the most if Golden is limited.
• MarShawn Lloyd, RB, $3,800, proj 4.1: Green Bay's change-of-pace back in the friendlier run matchup.

What the sims say

Across our simulations, both quarterbacks make the best lineup most of the time, which tells you the common outcome is both offenses moving the ball rather than one team running away with it.

• Best-lineup rate: Love 68%, Young 63%, McMillan 48%, Hubbard 45%, Coker 42%, Watson 42%, Golden 37%, Kraft 30%.
• Best captain: Love about 15% of sims, Young 13%, McMillan 13%, Watson 11%, Coker 10%, Hubbard 9%, Golden 8%, Kraft 4%.
• No single captain wins more than about one sim in seven, so spreading captains across both teams is reasonable.

The Carolina side shows up more often among the non-QBs: McMillan, Hubbard and Coker all make the best lineup more often than any Green Bay pass catcher. That lines up with Carolina's pass lean and with Hubbard's role.

Showdown builds

These come from our lineup builder on mean projection, with kickers and defenses left out.

• Build 1, both QBs: CPT Jordan Love, FLEX Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, Matthew Golden, Jalen Coker, Mark Redman. $50,000, combined proj 88.6.
• Build 2, Carolina receiver captain: CPT Tetairoa McMillan, FLEX Jordan Love, Bryce Young, Jalen Coker, Tucker Kraft, Bo Melton. $49,900, combined proj 85.9.

Build 1 is the straight sims read: both quarterbacks, the Carolina workhorse and a cheap tight end to make it fit. Build 2 bets on McMillan's high-volume games and keeps both quarterbacks underneath him.

A third approach, if you think Green Bay leans on the run against Carolina's soft run defense: captain Josh Jacobs with Love and Watson, plus Hubbard or McMillan from the other side so you are not tied to one team.

Check inactives about 90 minutes before kickoff, especially Golden and Nixon, then see the live board on the matchup page.